PGA Tour Picks: Tour Championship

By Tom LaMarre

When Dustin Johnson is on top of his game, as he is right now, he’s tough to beat without being given strokes.

That’s what happens this week in the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, where DJ will start with a two-stroke lead over Jon Rahm of Spain and even more on the rest of the field because he leads the FedEx Cup point standings.

The tournament starts Friday and runs through Monday, which is Labor Day.

This format was installed last year, when Rory McIlroy started the finale fifth in the points but came from five strokes back to win the Tour Championship and claim the FedEx Cup for the second time.

If Johnson keeps playing the way he has lately, he will be tough to beat for the tournament title and the FedEx Cup, but as always in golf even he knows there are no guarantees.

After tying for second in the PGA Championship, Johnson opened the playoffs with a dominating 11-stroke victory in The Northern Trust and seemed to be headed to victory again before Rahm stunned him with a 66-foot birdie putt on the first playoff hole to win the BMW Championship.

However, DJ remained No. 1 in the point standings.

“Obviously the goal was to be No. 1 going into East Lake, and I am still No. 1,” said Johnson, who also is No. 1 in the World Golf Rankings.

“Yeah, I mean, I like my position. I feel like the game is in really good form right now. I’m really, really pleased with all aspects of the game. I’m really looking forward to next week and a chance to win the FedEx Cup.”

McIlroy and Tiger Woods are the only two-time winners of the FedEx Cup, but Tiger didn’t finish in the top 30 of the point standings to make it to East Lake, where he has won the Tour Championship three times.

That leaves Rory with a chance to pass Tiger, even though his participation is in doubt because he and his wife, Erica, are expecting the birth of their first child any day now. If he does play, his chore will be more difficult this time because he his 12th in the standings and starts seven shots back.

“I’m just waiting for a phone call (that his daughter’s birth is imminent),” McIlroy said at the BMW Championship. “I was waiting for a phone call last week and it didn’t come. … (If it does) I’m outta here. Yeah outta here.

“I’m going to play in many more Tour Championships and it’s only going to be the birth of your first child once. That trumps anything else.”

The only other FedEx Cup champions in the field are Justin Thomas (2017), who starts No. 3 in the point standings and three strokes behind Johnson, and Billy Horschel (2013), who sneaked in at No. 30 and is 10 strokes back.

Thomas started at No. 1 last year, but couldn’t hold off McIlroy when he finished in a tie for third at East Lake.

Making up much of the field are the PGA Tour’s large number of young guns, including PGA champion Collin Morikawa, Joaquin Niemann of Chile, Sebastian Munoz of Colombia, Cameron Champ, Lanto Griffin, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland of Norway and Abraham Ancer of Mexico.

While most eyes will be on Johnson, Rahm, McIlroy, Thomas, et al, these newbies have all shown they are capable of winning and they won’t be awed by playing in the Tour Championship.

And as we found out last year, despite leading, Johnson is not a sure thing.

BEST BETS

1. Dustin Johnson, United States – DJ comes in with lead in the FedEx Cup standings, which spots him in the lead at 10-under-par after he won The Northern Trust and finished second in the BMW Championship to start the playoffs. Johnson has five top-10 finishes in the Tour Championship, the best solo third two years ago when he finished with 67-67.
2. Jon Rahm, Spain – His victory last week in BMW Championship was his first-ever in the playoffs, put him second in the standings and he starts two shots behind Dustin Johnson. Rahm, who tied for sixth in The Northern Trust, is in the finale for the fourth time, and he tied for seventh in 2017, tied for 11th in 2018 and tied for 12th last year.
3. Rory McIlroy, Northern Ireland – The defending FedEx Cup and Tour Championship winner starts seven strokes down this time at 12th in the point standings. He also claimed both titles in 2016. Rory has five victories during the playoffs, but this year he tied for 65th in The Northern Trust before tying for 12th last week in the BMW Championship.
4. Justin Thomas, United States – The 2017 FedEx Cup champion, when he won the Dell Technologies and was second in the finale on the way to the title, is third in the point standings and starts three shots back this week after tying for 49th in the Northern Trust and tying for 25th in the BMW. Has four straight finishes in the top seven at East Lake.
5. Webb Simpson, United States – Sat out the BMW Championship last week after tying for sixth in The Northern Trust and slipped one spot to fourth in the point standings, so he will start four strokes back at East Lake. His only playoff win came in the 2011 Dell Technologies, and he has three top-fives in seven appearances in the Tour Championship.
6. Hideki Matsuyama, Japan – Climbed to 10th in the point standings by tying for third in BMW Championship last week after tying for 29th in The Northern Trust, and starts out the finale six strokes down. Matsuyama makes his fourth straight appearance at East Lake after tying for 26th in 2017, tying for fourth in 2017 and tying for ninth last year.
7. Xander Schauffele, United States – Won the 2017 Tour Championship to finish third in the final standings two years before the format was changed, and also finished solo second last year and tied for seventh at East Lake in 2018. Tied for 25th in both The Northern Trust and BMW, sits 14th in the standings and starts seven strokes behind.
8. Bryson DeChambeau, United States – Despite missing the cut in The Northern Trust and finishing 50th in the BMW, DeChambeau still is eighth in the standings and six shots back. That’s a far cry from 2018, when he won the first two playoff events. He is making his third start at East Lake, having finished 19th two years ago and tied for 12th last year.
9. Daniel Berger, United States – By finishing third in The Northern Trust and tying for 25th in the BMW to start the playoffs, Berger enters the Tour Championship at sixth in the point standings and six strokes behind. He’s making his third start at East Lake, and tied for 12th in 2015, tied for 15th the following year and finished alone in 15th last year.
10. Collin Morikawa, United States – The PGA champion missed the cut in The Northern Trust and tied for 20th in the BMW Championship, but Morikawa wound up fifth in the point standings and will start out five shots back at East Lake. He is making his debut in the Tour Championship a little more than a year after graduating from Cal.

Other Players to Watch: Tyrrell Hatton, England; Tony Finau, United States; Patrick Reed, United States; Marc Leishman, Australia; Billy Horschel, United States.

SLEEPERS

1. Joaquin Niemann, Chile – The 21-year-old finished T-3 in BMW after missing cut in The Northern Trust. Climbed to 18th in standings, starts eight back in East Lake debut.
2. Sebastian Munoz, Colombia – Finishing T-18 in The Northern Trust and T-8 in BMW lifted Munoz to 15th in the standings. Starts his debut in the finale at seven shots down.
3. Scottie Scheffler, United States – Shot 59 in T-4 at The Northern Trust and was T-20 at BMW Championship. Rose to 17th in standings and is eight back in East Lake debut.
4. Lanto Griffin, United States – After T-19 in PGA, a T-10 in BMW left him 16th in the point standings. Will start eight strokes behind in debut at the Tour Championship.
5. Viktor Hovland, Sweden – T-18 in Northern Trust got him into top 30 at No. 28 in the standings and he stayed there with T-40 in BMW. Starts 10 down in debut at East Lake.